Whether you're betting on football, baseball,basketball, hockey, or anything else, make sure to check out our top 10 handicappers list for all of your sports picks/betting needs. So before we get into the strategy for making College Football Teaser bets, let's break down what they are, exactly. Teasers are a type of Parlay bet where. Bud's Bets is my column about college football gambling. I've had a strong few years including 55 percent against the spread in 2019 with an ROI of 5.1 percent.
Whether you're betting on football, baseball,basketball, hockey, or anything else, make sure to check out our top 10 handicappers list for all of your sports picks/betting needs.
So before we get into the strategy for making College Football Teaser bets, let's break down what they are, exactly.
Teasers are a type of Parlay bet where the lines are moved in your favor.
In exchange for the sportsbook helping you by shifting the lines, the payout odds are going to be lessened.
College Football Teaser Picks Bleacher Report
You can make Teaser bets on either the point spread or on the Total, also known as the 'Over/Under', lines.
For our examples in this video, we're going to be focused mainly on Point Spread Teasers.
Since this is a type of Parlay wager, that means you'll be betting on multiple games as part of a single wager.
If you need to brush up on Parlay betting,you can find a link to our How-To guide on that in the description below.
You can also check out our guide to placing NFL Teaser bets by clicking on that link in the description.
While college football teaser betting offers a different strategy, we recommend watching the NFL guide video prior to watching this one.
The main idea of basic teaser strategy is to place teasers that go from a loss to a win on point spreads, which in the NFL means fully crossing 3 and 7 at the best odds possible.
While that works for the NFL, it's not the same for college football.
In the NFL, the margin of victory for a large percentage of games ends up somewhere between 3 and 7 points.
The reason that that concept doesn't work for college football Teasers is simply because the 3-to-7 point margin of victory is only about two-thirds as common in college games as it is in the NFL.
So how do we adjust? When our experts did some data mining, they discovered that two similar, but different subsets seem to work.
The first subset is betting underdogs that are in the +1.5 to +2.
5 range, where the betting total is LESS THAN 47.5.
The second subset is betting favorites that are in the -7.5 to -8.
5 range, where the betting total is LESS THAN 47.5.
The difference here is key, as it's the addition of a Totals cap that helps make the increase in cover rate potentially profitable.
The idea is that games with a lower amount of projected scoring may be less volatile with margin of victory.
We do want to point out that data mining like was used to create those subsets can be dangerous when it's taken as a sure-thing.
The sample sizes used to determine these numbers are not and can not be big enough to avoid potentially large swings based on year-to-year results and statistics.
College Football Teaser Picks Odds
There is an entire section of our article on College Football Teasers dedicated to this on our website that I'd recommend checking out, and the link to that is in the description.
If you really want to beat college football teasers, then a better method for the favorites starts with removing vig from the money line.
There is going to be a significant amount of math involved here, and a lot of numbers, so feel free to pause, rewind, and review if you need to.
There's a no-vig calculator on our website that we'll be using to help with calculating the no-vig odds.
Let's use a hypothetical game between Ohio State and Michigan as an example.
Here, OSU is favored to win by 8 points, with each team at the standard -110 odds.
The moneyline, meanwhile, show the Buckeyesat -310 and the Wolverines at +280.
Using our no-vig calculator, we find thatthe no-vig moneyline is -287.27, which has a no-vig win probability of 74.18%.
That tells us that the market is giving OhioState a 74.18% chance of winning.
… From here, we look back to the point spread.
Ohio State's spread was -8, so in our 6-pointteaser, we'd have them at -2.Our database shows about a 2.5% push ratein college football on a -1 spread, and a 1.8% push rate on a -2 spread.
Since we'd lose on a 1-point result, andwe'd push on a 2-point result, we have to subtract the 2.5, and half of the 1.8, fromOhio State's market odds of winning.
That leaves us with a cover rate of 71.59%.
So what do you do with that number? Well, in that example, teasing Ohio State in a 3-team, 6-point, +180 teaser is considered '+EV', while teasing them in a 2-team,6-point, -110 teaser is '-EV'.
Why? Because in order to break even long-term,you need a 70.
95% success rate on 3-team, 6-point teasers at +180, and Ohio State's71.59% is better than that.
However, for a 2-team, 6-point teaser at -110,you need a success rate of 72.37% to break even, and the Buckeyes fall short in that regard.
Betting on Teasers is a pretty advanced technique,and you should make sure you fully understand them before attempting to place your first Teaser wagers.
Make sure to read our articles on 'NFL Teasers'and 'College Football Teasers', as well, for more information so you can have the best and most-thorough understanding possible before heading to your sportsbook or online betting site.
No. 20 Iowa vs Northwestern
12:00 PM EST, Saturday, October 26, 2019
Ryan Field, Evanston, IL
Opening Line: Clemson -10.5
Northwestern's sophomore quarterback Hunter Johnson ahs been struggling to play thorugh a knee injury in recent weeks. The former Clemson blue-chip recruit transferred to Northwestern when Trevor Lawrence took over the reigns leaving Johnson with little hope of playing time. Johnson sat out last year per NCAA regulations and had been impressive in Spring Football, but he has been unable to deliver in the regular season.
As a result, the Northwestern offense has struggled in both the passing and running games this season and now face a top-10 defense in the Iowa Hawkeyes. Northwestern ranks `127th out of 130 division-1 programs in scoring offense averaging just 12.5 points-per-game (PPG) and 129th posting a 0.166 points-per-play ratio. This inept offense will be facing the fifth-best scoring defense in the nation that allows 11.6 PPG and the 11th-best passing defense that allows 6.0 yards-per-pass-attempt. Northwestern may not score in this contest.
What does the Machine Tell Us?
Northwestern head coach is 0-10 ATS when he has faced an elite defensive team that has allowed 14 or fewer PPG.
The machine learning projections call for Northwestern to gain less than 250 total offensive yards. Iowa is 29-9 ATS when they have held an opponent to fewer than 250 offensive yards since 2006.
What is the Teaser Opportunity?
The teaser opportunity is to bet on the Iowa Hawkeyes and the UNDER using the 6-point teaser. The NCAAF Odds show that Iowa is a 10.5 point favorite with a 37.5-point total. So, the 6-point teaser makes Iowa a 4.5-point favorite and the UNDER portion is increased to 43.5-points.
Full Game Preview: Iowa vs. Northwestern
No. 15 Texas vs TCU
3:30 PM EST, October 26, 2019
Amon G. Carter Stadium Fort Worth, TX
Opening Line: Texas -1
The Texas Longhorns are coming off a wild home game against Kansas and survived 50-48 but failed to cover the spread as a 21-point favorite.
No letdown for these Longhorns
Texas has two losses and a chance at the Playoffs is remote at best. The losses though are against teams that may be the two-best teams in the nation. They lost 38-45 hosting No. 2 LSU and lost to No. 5 Oklahoma 27-34. They still can earn the right to play in the Big-12 Championship game.
They will win their final five games to post a 10-2 overall record and 8-1 Conference record. They still have Iowa State and undefeated Baylor to play the last two weeks of the regular season. With wins over those two programs, Texas would be in the 2-seed to play Oklahoma in the Big-12 Championship again.
What Does the Machine Have for Us?
This situational betting system has earned a solid 52-19 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to play against home favorite include pick-em off a close loss of seven or fewer points to a conference foe and are now playing a team off a home win. So, the 6-point teaser bet is to play Texas and the OVER. The current line shows TCU as a 1-point home favorite and a total of 62-points. So, the 6-point teaser bet than changes the NCAAF odds to Texas as a 5-point road dog and the OVER to 56-points.
Check out the current NCAAF Odds to see who has the best line for your NCAAF Picks and be sure to follow me @John Ryan Sports1 for daily updates for all my published bets this week.
